By Chad Taylor
What an exciting couple of weeks it has been. Both Republicans and Democrats have had their week in the limelight. And because of it, I have almost had to avoid social media. The polarizing positions of both sides of the aisle have brought out the worst when it comes to passive-aggressive posts to social media. They are like little unsuspecting landmines in my news feed.
Truth be told though, I am a political junkie. I just can’t get enough of it. I am fascinated by both parties and their processes. Just ask Leah. I have recorded all four nights of both conventions because I want to hear all sides of every issue facing our beautiful country. After all of my years of watching elections, debates, and conventions, I am shocked at how dramatically different both political platforms are on pretty much every issue. I mean polar opposites. Even for an old school political junkie like myself, it is a little disconcerting. So how does that affect the real estate market?
Historically, elections do have a direct effect on the markets. The more uncertain the outcome, the stronger the chance that the markets will take a hit. This year, not only is the election outcome hard to predict, but the proposed policies of the two candidates could not be more different if they tried. Sounds like uncertainty to me. “This election, we’ve got a lot of uncertainties. And if there’s one thing markets hate, it’s uncertainty,” Mary Ann Bartels, Head of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Portfolio Strategy. recently said.
As I read about this topic, I was not surprised to find that during election years when the incumbent president was running for office, the markets did not take as big of a hit. This is the case regardless of the political party of the incumbent. Fascinating, right? But not surprising. In most cases, people don’t love change. Even if the incumbent does not align with your political views, at least he or she is predictable in a sense.
In recent conversations I have heard people say that the markets like it better if a Republican is elected versus a Democrat because Republicans are better for business. Again, when I researched this topic, I found it to be quite untrue. Especially in recent history. Change is change, and remember that the markets don’t like change.
I bring this year’s election up because number one, everyone should go and vote on election day. And not just presidential election day, but also for local and state elections. And two, yes the real estate market may very well be affected by this year’s election. As we near the election, the slow shift in our market that we are currently seeing could be intensified going into November. Seasonally we historically see a lessening of demand and an increase in inventory going into the holiday months. As we build up to the election, this shift could come much sooner creating opportunities in the market. Opportunities like more housing options for buyers, fewer multiple offer situations, even lower interest rates, and so on.
After three-and-a-half years of a highly competitive sellers’ market, the tides could start to turn. We are already seeing some signs of a shift and if you are looking to enter the real estate market in the near future, you might consider making election day your target for closing on your new home, or for selling your current home.
This weekly sponsored column is written by Chad Taylor of the Taylor-Made Team and Keller Williams Realty Key Partners, LLC. The Taylor-Made Team consistently performs in the top 3 percent of Realtors in the Heartland MLS. Please submit follow-up questions in the comments section or via email. You can find out more about the Taylor-Made Team on its website. And always feel free to call at 913-825-7540.